Description

This analysis provides a forecast of TRB prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-12-22 43.040334 50.721226 59.113836 68.930937 80.063658 92.260123 106.595446
2024-12-29 32.316021 42.694628 55.093936 70.849077 90.171936 112.926848 141.563925
2025-01-05 25.078316 36.313308 50.712906 70.202946 95.536386 126.966033 168.471325
2025-01-12 21.998889 34.295603 50.959552 74.645798 106.819217 148.310887 205.063934
2025-01-19 17.097897 28.800072 45.598723 70.688705 106.291108 153.973405 221.436793
2025-01-26 15.066512 27.052372 45.084660 73.104047 114.251228 170.994804 253.379085
2025-02-02 14.011665 26.593114 46.299214 77.960292 125.803902 193.389780 293.603495
2025-02-09 12.543092 25.199711 45.850462 80.157300 133.483608 210.607589 327.319723
2025-02-16 11.120177 23.639809 44.903651 81.391144 139.659239 225.827513 358.745675
2025-02-23 9.701288 21.846644 43.326759 81.390619 143.809553 238.136383 386.350167
2025-03-02 8.235701 19.712658 40.888555 79.679351 145.032402 245.973999 407.538769
2025-03-09 7.357171 18.583680 40.076952 80.589620 150.430820 260.309430 438.918931
2025-03-16 5.689817 15.624459 35.751092 75.355679 146.006047 260.211419 450.091825
2025-03-23 5.057351 14.814922 35.453362 77.395765 154.131551 280.657007 494.492354
2025-03-30 4.259126 13.432452 33.799953 76.698533 157.387196 293.323066 527.148942
2025-04-06 4.036157 13.415139 34.960664 81.477770 170.647608 323.082506 588.427019
2025-04-13 3.166422 11.493313 31.730333 77.221105 167.129040 324.454165 603.529291
2025-04-20 2.885504 11.116272 31.884074 79.819632 176.454419 348.104481 656.279788
2025-04-27 2.787193 11.251942 33.241731 85.041021 191.054132 381.514805 726.583928
2025-05-04 2.535365 10.855719 33.268174 87.401901 200.255530 405.822602 782.375041
2025-05-11 2.260489 10.310943 32.846794 88.727429 207.479122 426.895051 833.380257
2025-05-18 1.961733 9.596150 31.881974 88.726865 212.023313 443.300451 876.886656
2025-05-25 1.634355 8.667225 30.198756 86.888370 212.671093 452.568035 908.215269